SHOULD WIN (not listed if same as Will Win)
WILL WIN

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Snub: First Man. I don’t think First Man would have won had it been included but I think BlacKkKlansman is taking up space. Not that they can’t both be included but if you’re cutting off at 8 this year, you gotta remove one. This seems like a nod to Spike Lee for when he doesn’t win Best Director (which is also a nod to him, I guess).

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

I never would have guessed it but Malek is probably gonna take this one. I thoroughly enjoyed Mortensen and Bale was transformative (as usual), but all signs point to Mr. Robot for the win. Good for him.

Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Admittedly, I did not watch The Wife or Can You Ever Forgive Me? but I have no doubt that Glen Close will win this. She’s a legend (which edges out Gaga) and Olivia Colman didn’t have a ton of screen time to push herself over. This could go wildly wrong though. Sometimes a Golden Globe win will lower your chances at an Oscar but it’s tough to predict and easy to point out in hindsight.

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Again, I haven’t seen Can You Forgive Me? but there’s just no way Ali doesn’t get this.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I loved King for the whole 5 minutes she was in If Beale Street Could Talk. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, on the other hand, kept The Favourite moving constantly and had way more to do and say. It’s a bit of a quagmire that one movie produced three great actresses’ performances. They should all be up for best actress really. Then you can give King the win out of sheer undecidedness.

Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Snub: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk; Damien Chazelle, First Man
Why does the Academy do this? When Denzel Washington won his Best Actor for Training Day it was largely seen as conciliatory for past snubs and losses. If you have a cap at 5 for Directors, why is Spike Lee here? For also snubbing him on Malcolm X? Or Inside Man? Or Do the Right Thing? Or the Oldboy remake? (Just kidding, fuck that movie). Additionally, Jenkins’ and Chazelle’s non-inclusion make little sense. Traditionally, there is a cap at 5 but expanding that to include more would remove that pesky nominated movie/non-nominated director contradiction that happens so often.

Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2 Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs Wes Anderson
Mirai Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

As of writing this, Spider-Verse is still the best movie I’ve seen in 2018.

Original Screenplay:

The Favourite Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed Paul Schrader
Green Book Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma Alfonso Cuarón
Vice Adam McKay
I liked all these, but First Reformed was the only one that wasn’t based on something in history (that I know of) so it gets extra points.

Cinematography:

Cold War Lukasz Zal
The Favourite Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away Caleb Deschanel
Roma Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born Matthew Libatique

Best Documentary Feature:

Free Solo Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons Talal Derki
RBG Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Snub: Won’t You Be My Neighbor. Should I remove sentimentality from my decisions? Neighbor is one the most life-affirming, joyful movies I’ve ever seen. Minding the Gap is a poignant study of manhood (and motherhood) in America today but filmed like a skate video. Free Solo is daring and foolish in every way possible. Ginsberg is certainly a deserving subject matter so I know this is a hard sell.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

If you are nominated in the Best Film category, don’t you automatically win this?

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody John Ottman
Green Book Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice Hank Corwin

Like The Big Short a complicated story is told through montages, quick cuts and comedy. Mckay knows what needs to be told and his editors make us understand it thoroughly.

Sound Editing:

Black Panther Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody John Warhurst
First Man Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

I have to google the Sound categories every year. Editing is collecting sounds…

Sound Mixing:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

…Mixing is what you do with the sounds you collected.

Production Design:

Black Panther Hannah Beachler
First Man Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Original Score:

BlacKkKlansman Terence Blanchard
Black Panther Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Original Song:

“All The Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
“Shallow” is just everywhere I look so I assume academy members vote the same way. Ubiquity of name.

Makeup and Hair:

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Vice has the undesirable position of having to make people you know look like other people you know, but I vote for Border based on its sheer originality. And that sex scene.

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs Mary Zophres
Black Panther Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots Alexandra Byrne

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Why is Black Panther not in here? They invented a whole country. Where The Avengers visit and fight the Infinity War.