Oscar Predictions 2020 (Updated)

In the past, I never felt the need to correct these predictions. Who cares if I was wrong? To be honest, who cares if I was right? It’s always bothered me in sports that people predict game outcomes on television all the time and never eat shit for being wrong, so I opted not to follow that model especially given the massive upset from last night.

I was introduced to Korean cinema around 2014 while studying the work of cinematographer Chung-Hoon Chung, meaning I watched a lot of Chan-Wook Park movies and, in turn, discovered Bong-Joon Ho. There is a humor and creativity in South Korean cinema that I find endearing, weird and complex. Like French or German films, it has an identifiable style unique to its region that adds great color to international film.

When Ho won Best Director, I realized that 1917 was no longer a lock and Best Picture was up for grabs. It hasn’t been too long since I was enthusiastic about a win (Moonlight), but when they read his name I said “fuck yes” under my breath and pumped my fist a little. I could not have been happier to be wrong in the two big categories of the night. Many will cry fowl and say it’s an Academy corrective or something for the Oscars being too white, but sometimes the corrective is, actually, correct.


SHOULD WIN (not listed if same as Will Win)


Best Film

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit


Little Women

Marriage Story


Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


More and more, I don’t know what Best Film means. The Academy uses ranked-choice voting so even if one movie is a lot of people’s number one, the movie that averages the highest will win. So, 1917 will probably win even if I think Once Upon a Time is better. Parasite also has a strong possibility to win if they give Best Director to Sam Mendes. Predicting these things can be about balancing the voting members thought process. “If I give this movie this, I’ll give this movie this,” etc.


Best Director

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Todd Phillips – Joker

Sam Mendes – 1917

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Anyone in this category would be deserving of a win. I just like Tarantino for it. I want to see him holding that statue for a director.


Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory as Salvador Mallo

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Rick Dalton

Adam Driver – Marriage Story as Charlie Barber

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker as Arthur Fleck / Joker

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes as Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio

The little girl was right. His performance on the set of “Lancer” is some of the best acting I have ever seen.


Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet as Harriet Tubman

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story as Nicole Barber

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women as Josephine “Jo” March

Charlize Theron – Bombshell as Megyn Kelly

Renée Zellweger – Judy as Judy Garland

Right? I mean biopics are gonna get you gold. This was a big year for Johansson though and Ronan looks to be one of the greats.


Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as Fred Rogers

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes as Pope Benedict XVI

Al Pacino – The Irishman as Jimmy Hoffa

Joe Pesci – The Irishman as Russell Bufalino

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth

The Two Popes was pretty underrated, I think. I mean, people like it, but they just weren’t excited about it. I loved it and Hopkins character acting was the best I’ve seen since he did Lecter. Pitt feels like the favorite but I think he’s getting credit for being an idealized version of himself. Who is cool. But I liked his performance (not his narration) in Ad Astra better.


Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell as Barbara “Bobi” Jewell

Laura Dern – Marriage Story as Nora Fanshaw

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit as Rosie Betzler

Florence Pugh – Little Women as Amy March

Margot Robbie – Bombshell as Kayla Pospisil

I want this for Scarlett but this is a tough one. Dern had some heavy lifting to do. Do I need to see Bombshell and Richard Jewell?


Best Original Screenplay

Knives Out – Rian Johnson

Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach

1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino

Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

I don’t know that Knives Out should win necessarily but I want it to get something.


Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman – Steven Zaillian based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt

Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens

Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson

Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott

The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten based on his play The Pope


Best International Feature Film

Corpus Christi (Poland) in Polish – Directed by Jan Komasa

Honeyland (North Macedonia) in Turkish and Macedonian[9] – Directed by Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov

Les Misérables (France) in French – Directed by Ladj Ly

Pain and Glory (Spain) in Spanish – Directed by Pedro Almodóvar

Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho

I will ask it ONE MORE TIME: If you’re foreign film gets nominated for American Best Picture, don’t you have to win your own category?


Best Documentary Feature

American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert

The Cave – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær

The Edge of Democracy – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan

For Sama – Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts

Honeyland – Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev

I’m mildly ashamed to say I’ve only seen one of these. So I picked that one.


Best Fight Choreography

I don’t know where I found this category. Apparently, it does not exist. I stand by my choice.

It Chapter Two

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

Terminator: Dark Fate

Captain Marvel

Hobbs & Shaw

Not only is the fight choreography good, but Wick has a fight scene with two German shepherds. It’s incredible.


Best Original Score

Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir

Little Women – Alexandre Desplat

Marriage Story – Randy Newman

1917 – Thomas Newman

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams


Best Original Song

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 – Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman

“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin

“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren

“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

“Stand Up” from Harriet – Music and Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo


Best Sound Editing

Ford v Ferrari – Donald Sylvester

Joker – Alan Robert Murray

1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Wylie Stateman

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Matthew Wood and David Acord


Best Sound Mixing

Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano

Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow

Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland

1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano


Best Production Design

The Irishman – Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves

Jojo Rabbit – Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková

1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo


Best Cinematography

The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto

Joker – Lawrence Sher

The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke

1917 – Roger Deakins

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson

Man, The Lighthouse kinda got shat on this year. Too far out there for people. Probably not gonna win this category either. Deakins for the Repeat and I can’t disagree.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker

Joker – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou

Judy – Jeremy Woodhead

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White

1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole

I’m just guessing here. The movie is all about the news where there’s lots of hair and makeup.


Best Costume Design

The Irishman – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson

Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo

Joker – Mark Bridges

Little Women – Jacqueline Durran

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips

The oldest clothing gets the win usually. You can’t just find that shit in a thrift store.


Best Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari – Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker

The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker

Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles

Joker – Jeff Groth

Parasite – Yang Jin-mo


Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick

The Irishman – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda

The Lion King – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman

1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy


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